Just how much momentum does the mobile payments industry have? Perhaps more than we thought. In fact, half of consumers in mature markets are likely to be tapping smartphones or wearables to make mobile payments by 2018, according to market research firm Gartner Inc.

Innovation in apps, mobile devices and mobile services are impacting traditional business models, especially with regard to how people use personal technology for productivity and pleasure, Gartner analyst Amanda Sabia said in a statement.

"Product managers must understand who their customers are for these new devices and services, and how the products are being used,” Sabia said. “Knowing your customer Relevant Products/Services is imperative in order to capture a fair share of spending opportunities in this dynamic marketplace."

Why NFC May Suffer

There are three types of mobile payments or mobile wallets on the market now. Beyond the smartphone and wearables sector that features Apple Pay, Samsung Pay (pictured) and Google Pay, there are also branded mobile wallets from retailers and banks or credit card companies. Starbucks, for example, was one of the first to roll out its own mobile wallet.

Apple, Samsung and Google, though, may not gain as much traction as the other two mobile wallet types in the short to midterm. That’s because the near field communication (NFC) technology on which they operate lacks widespread partnerships with retailers, financial institutions and even consumer adoption.

“Any mobile payment wallets that are tied to the device will have limited adoption and only if the device has a huge installed base," said Annette Jump, research director at Gartner. "Instead, cloud Relevant Products/Services-based solutions will have a better chance to succeed as they can reach a wider audience and can support many use cases beyond face-to-face or in-store options. Also, mobile payment and mobile wallet adoption requires a country-by-country rollout plan with an enabled payment infrastructure and agreement with major banks and retailers."

Too Aggressive?

We caught up with Greg Sterling, vice president of strategy and insight at the Local Search Association, to get his take on the report. He told us Gartner’s forecast is a bit aggressive but it is certainly directionally correct.

“More consumers will be using their phones over time to pay for things in stores at a physical POS. Before that time, however, in-app payments will become much more widespread, with e-commerce and offline services being paid in app,” Sterling said.

Additionally, there's definitely a blurring of e-commerce and offline retail in the form of mobile payments, according to Sterling. "The ease of use of something like Apple Pay and the proliferation of competing products and systems makes the Gartner forecast inevitable. It's only the specific time frame I would dispute,” he said.

Mobile TV Rising

Gartner also predicted that 75 percent of TV-style content will be watched through application-based services in mature markets by 2018.

"The increasing prevalence of application-based TV-style viewing will be disruptive to the traditional pay-TV market. Consumers are already cutting back on premium pay-TV channels in favor of subscription video on demand services such as Netflix and Hulu Plus," said Gartner analyst Derek O'Donnell. "We expect that this phenomenon will continue to accelerate over the next three years, putting pressure on the revenue of pay-TV operators, particularly from premium channel subscriptions."

Will households start to cut the cord altogether? Gartner predicted they indeed will as the mainstream market begins to move toward TV viewing through apps. That, in turn, will pressure traditional pay TV operators to roll out their own apps to keep up with the emerging competition.

Finally, Gartner predicted less than 20 percent of users in mature markets will subscribe to mobile data-only connections by 2019. Mobile data consumption is rising as the technology improves. Although most of the data is consumed on smartphones, communication service providers are also pushing mobile data-only connections alongside Wi-Fi broadband.

"In markets where fixed broadband and Wi-Fi is widely available, and where CSPs' offerings are allowing tethering as part of their mobile offerings, the value-add of a stand-alone mobile data-only connection is harder to demonstrate," said Stephanie Baghdassarian, research director at Gartner. "Also, when focusing on tablets specifically, it has to be noted that cellular-enabled tablets are noticeably more expensive than Wi-Fi-only versions. This is yet another inhibitor to mobile data-only connectivity uptake."